league ko
match tip V
  %
1 X 2
tip V
% u/o
U O
ft
AR1 2:30
Tigre (15) - Arsenal Sarandi (2)
   
45 29 25
2.10 3.10 3.50
   
64 u/o 35
1.55   2.30
res.  
CHL 19:00
CSKA Moscow - Man City
   
39 25 33
6.20 3.85 1.53
   
49 u/o 50
2.00   1.76
res.  
CHL 21:45
APOEL Nicosia - Paris SG
   
47 26 25
7.50 4.00 1.47
U 1
55 u/o 44
1.85   1.91
res.  
CHL 21:45
BATE Borisov - Shakhtar Dnk.
   
50 22 25
4.25 3.30 1.90
O 14
39 u/o 60
1.66   2.17
res.  
CHL 21:45
Chelsea - Maribor
   
58 21 17
1.15 8.25 17.00
U 9
46 u/o 53
2.67   1.45
res.  
CHL 21:45
Barcelona - Ajax
   
50 28 21
1.12 9.00 20.00
U 32
65 u/o 34
3.00   1.36
res.  
CHL 21:45
Porto - Ath.Bilbao
X 1
50 28 21
1.62 3.65 5.60
U 11
65 u/o 34
1.85   1.91
res.  
CHL 21:45
Roma - Bayern M
   
51 23 23
3.80 3.50 1.95
   
47 u/o 52
2.04   1.74
res.  
CHL 21:45
Schalke 04 - Sp.Lisbon
   
46 26 26
1.90 3.50 4.20
U 3
56 u/o 43
1.90   1.86
res.  

Football predictions using improved Elo rating method

Predictions are based on Elo rating adjusted for football. Results from method are passed to poisson distribution and final results are shown as percents.

The column V is indicator for value bet

Football tips are predicted on the fly. When the odds drops and there is no value, the tips is removed. Predictions with value closed to zero will be removed if odd go down.

The graph below shows performance of this method from 1.6.2013 until now. Blue line is daily profit and red line is balance.

The stake is 1 unit. If we have 1X or X2 the stake is 2 units, one on draw and one on 1 or 2.