league ko
match tip V
  %
1 X 2
tip V
% u/o
U O
ft
EUR 16:00
Switzerland - Poland
   
45 27 26
3.20 2.95 2.70
O 8
59 u/o 40
1.39   3.10
res. 1-1
EUR 19:00
Wales - N.Ireland
1 5
55 24 19
2.02 3.05 4.95
O 12
54 u/o 45
1.41   3.00
res. 1-0
EUR 22:00
Croatia - Portugal
2 8
32 26 40
2.72 3.00 3.10
O 11
52 u/o 47
1.47   2.75
res.  

Football predictions using improved Elo rating method

Predictions are based on Elo rating adjusted for football. Results from method are passed to poisson distribution and final results are shown as percents.

The column V is indicator for value bet

Football tips are predicted on the fly. When the odds drops and there is no value, the tips is removed. Predictions with value closed to zero will be removed if odd go down.

The graph below shows performance of this method from 1.6.2013 until now. Blue line is daily profit and red line is balance.

The stake is 1 unit. If we have 1X or X2 the stake is 2 units, one on draw and one on 1 or 2.