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Under / Over Goals · best goal line per match

2026-10-11 · 211 fixtures

Live matches first, then by kick-off time.

Over/under goals predictions today cover 211 matches across Bundesliga, First Division A, LaLiga, Ligue 1, Premier League. The Poisson model calculates the probability of total goals exceeding or staying under each goal line (1.5, 2.5, 3.5). Today's highest-confidence pick is Over 1.5 in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 (84% probability).

17'
São Paulo0
Vitoria0
Brasileiro Serie A
Over 1.574%Under 3.573%Under 2.551%
19'
Universitario de Deportes0
FBC Melgar0
Liga 1
Under 3.574%Over 1.573%Under 2.552%
10:15
Utrecht
Willem II
Eredivisie
Over 1.582%Under 3.562%Over 2.561%
10:30
Como
AS Roma
Serie A
Over 1.576%Under 3.570%Over 2.552%
11:00
Akhmat Grozny
Baltika Kaliningrad
Premier League
Over 1.573%Under 3.573%Under 2.552%
11:30
VfL Bochum 1848
Bielefeld
2nd Bundesliga
Over 1.579%Under 3.567%Over 2.556%
11:30
Hertha Berlin
Furth
2nd Bundesliga
Over 1.577%Under 3.569%Over 2.553%
11:30
FC St Pauli
Karlsruhe
2nd Bundesliga
Over 1.578%Under 3.567%Over 2.555%
12:00
Elche
RC Celta
LaLiga
Over 1.575%Under 3.572%Over 2.550%
12:00
Andorra
Castellón
LaLiga 2
Over 1.574%Under 3.573%Under 2.551%
12:00
Mil-Mugan FK
Qarabag FK
Premier League
Under 3.578%Over 1.569%Under 2.557%
12:30
Altach
Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga
Over 1.576%Under 3.571%Over 2.552%

The highest-confidence over/under goals prediction today is Over 1.5 in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 (Bundesliga), with a 84% probability according to the model.

Across today's 12 analysed matches, the most frequently predicted pick is Over 1.5, appearing as the top selection in 11 fixtures.

Each prediction is generated from team-specific metrics sourced from SSTrader's pre-match data feed. All predictions are settled against real bookmaker results, and historical accuracy is tracked publicly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Over 2.5 goals means 3 or more total goals in the match. Under 2.5 means 2 or fewer. The Poisson model calculates this by summing probabilities for all scorelines with 3+ combined goals.

Over/Under 2.5 predictions are among the most accurate football betting markets, with typical model accuracy of 55-65%. The Poisson model performs best on goal-line markets because goal distribution follows a Poisson pattern.

The model uses each team's expected goals (xG) to build a Poisson probability table. It sums the probabilities of all scorelines where total goals exceed (Over) or stay below (Under) the specified line.

Today, the highest-probability Over/Under pick is Over 1.5 in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 (Bundesliga), with a 84% chance.

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