A half-time correct score prediction forecasts the exact scoreline at half-time. The model uses first-half expected goals (full-time xG ÷ 3) to calculate probabilities for all possible half-time scorelines.
0-0 is the most common half-time score in football, as first-half xG typically ranges 0.7-1.0 combined goals. The Poisson model naturally favours 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1 at half-time.
The model divides each team's full-time expected goals by 3 to estimate first-half scoring rate, then computes the probability table for all possible half-time scorelines (0-0 through 3-3).