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Under / Over Goals · best goal line per match

2026-10-05 · 26 fixtures

Live matches first, then by kick-off time.

Over/under goals predictions today cover 26 matches across Superliga, UEFA Nations League, 1st Division, Friendly International, LaLiga 2. The Poisson model calculates the probability of total goals exceeding or staying under each goal line (1.5, 2.5, 3.5). Today's highest-confidence pick is Under 3.5 in Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club Avellaneda (90% probability).

18:30
Cordoba
Tenerife
LaLiga 2
Under 3.576%Over 1.571%Under 2.554%
FT
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto1
Racing Club Avellaneda2
Superliga
Under 3.590%Under 2.574%Over 1.553%
13:00
Uganda
Congo DR
Friendly International
Over 1.576%Under 3.571%Over 2.552%
13:00
Recoleta
Libertad
Primera Division, Clausura
Under 3.574%Over 1.573%Under 2.553%
14:30
Montenegro U21
Armenia U21
UEFA U21 Championship Qualification
Over 1.582%Under 3.562%Over 2.560%
15:00
Mauritius
Sri Lanka
Friendly International
Over 1.576%Under 3.570%Over 2.552%
16:00
Cyprus
Latvia
UEFA Nations League
Under 3.576%Over 1.571%Under 2.554%
16:00
Rwanda
Kenya
Friendly International
Over 1.577%Under 3.569%Over 2.553%
16:15
Italy U21
Poland U21
UEFA U21 Championship Qualification
Over 1.585%Over 2.565%Under 3.557%
16:30
Sweden U21
FYR Macedonia U21
UEFA U21 Championship Qualification
Over 1.581%Under 3.564%Over 2.559%
17:00
Moss
Kongsvinger
1st Division
Over 1.586%Over 2.567%Under 3.554%
18:45
Italy
Türkiye
UEFA Nations League
Under 3.577%Over 1.570%Under 2.556%

The highest-confidence over/under goals prediction today is Under 3.5 in Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club Avellaneda (Superliga), with a 90% probability according to the model.

Across today's 12 analysed matches, the most frequently predicted pick is Under 3.5, appearing as the top selection in 12 fixtures.

Each prediction is generated from team-specific metrics sourced from SSTrader's pre-match data feed. All predictions are settled against real bookmaker results, and historical accuracy is tracked publicly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Over 2.5 goals means 3 or more total goals in the match. Under 2.5 means 2 or fewer. The Poisson model calculates this by summing probabilities for all scorelines with 3+ combined goals.

Over/Under 2.5 predictions are among the most accurate football betting markets, with typical model accuracy of 55-65%. The Poisson model performs best on goal-line markets because goal distribution follows a Poisson pattern.

The model uses each team's expected goals (xG) to build a Poisson probability table. It sums the probabilities of all scorelines where total goals exceed (Over) or stay below (Under) the specified line.

Today, the highest-probability Over/Under pick is Under 3.5 in Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club Avellaneda (Superliga), with a 90% chance.

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