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Under / Over Goals · best goal line per match

2026-10-05 · 26 fixtures

Live matches first, then by kick-off time.

Over/under goals predictions today cover 26 matches across Superliga, UEFA Nations League, 1st Division, Friendly International, LaLiga 2. The Poisson model calculates the probability of total goals exceeding or staying under each goal line (1.5, 2.5, 3.5). Today's highest-confidence pick is Under 3.5 in Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club Avellaneda (90% probability).

49'
Velez Sarsfield1
Platense1
Superliga
Under 3.586%Under 2.567%Over 1.560%
44'
Estudiantes LP0
Gimnasia Mendoza0
Superliga
Under 3.582%Over 1.565%Under 2.562%
35'
Cerro Porteno0
2 de Mayo1
Primera Division, Clausura
Under 3.579%Over 1.568%Under 2.558%
FT
Cordoba3
Tenerife2
LaLiga 2
Under 3.576%Over 1.571%Under 2.554%
FT
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto1
Racing Club Avellaneda2
Superliga
Under 3.590%Under 2.574%Over 1.553%
FT
Mauritius2
Sri Lanka3
Friendly International
Over 1.576%Under 3.570%Over 2.552%
FT
Uganda1
Congo DR1
Friendly International
Over 1.576%Under 3.571%Over 2.552%
FT
Recoleta1
Libertad2
Primera Division, Clausura
Under 3.574%Over 1.573%Under 2.553%
FT
Montenegro U211
Armenia U211
UEFA U21 Championship Qualification
Over 1.582%Under 3.562%Over 2.560%
FT
Cyprus0
Latvia0
UEFA Nations League
Under 3.576%Over 1.571%Under 2.554%
FT
Rwanda0
Kenya0
Friendly International
Over 1.577%Under 3.569%Over 2.553%
FT
Italy U216
Poland U212
UEFA U21 Championship Qualification
Over 1.585%Over 2.565%Under 3.557%

The highest-confidence over/under goals prediction today is Under 3.5 in Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club Avellaneda (Superliga), with a 90% probability according to the model.

Across today's 12 analysed matches, the most frequently predicted pick is Under 3.5, appearing as the top selection in 12 fixtures.

Each prediction is generated from team-specific metrics sourced from SSTrader's pre-match data feed. All predictions are settled against real bookmaker results, and historical accuracy is tracked publicly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Over 2.5 goals means 3 or more total goals in the match. Under 2.5 means 2 or fewer. The Poisson model calculates this by summing probabilities for all scorelines with 3+ combined goals.

Over/Under 2.5 predictions are among the most accurate football betting markets, with typical model accuracy of 55-65%. The Poisson model performs best on goal-line markets because goal distribution follows a Poisson pattern.

The model uses each team's expected goals (xG) to build a Poisson probability table. It sums the probabilities of all scorelines where total goals exceed (Over) or stay below (Under) the specified line.

Today, the highest-probability Over/Under pick is Under 3.5 in Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club Avellaneda (Superliga), with a 90% chance.

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